The option matrix 场景学习单

Three options appear in columns beneath the same strategic objective.

同一个战略目标下方并排列着三种方案。

MINISTER

We need one recommendation, not another table.

我们需要一个建议，不是另一张表。

ADVISER

A choice is not a plan until we state what must be true for it to work.

只有说明方案奏效必须满足什么条件，选择才会成为计划。

ADVISER

For each option, list the assumption, the first irreversible cost and the signal that would make us change course.

每个方案都要列出核心假设、第一项不可逆代价，以及促使我们改变路线的信号。

MINISTER

Then recommend the option whose assumptions we can test before the cost becomes irreversible.

那么就推荐那个能在代价不可逆之前检验其假设的方案。

A red line marks the decision point beyond which retreat is no longer possible.

一条红线标出再也无法撤回的决策节点。